Gibraltar enacts world’s first regulatory framework for prediction markets

Gibraltar introduced the world’s first dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets with the publication of the Prediction Market Regulations 2026, as Legal Notice No. 176 of 2026, in the Gibraltar Gazette on 13 July.

Now in force under the Gambling Act 2025, these landmark regulations establish a legal framework governing prediction market operators and contracts, distinguishing the sector from traditional gambling activities.

A prediction market is defined as a system, platform or arrangement that facilitates the creation, trading or settlement of prediction market contracts – financial instruments whose value is determined by the occurrence or non-occurrence of a specified event or outcome.

“Gibraltar has always been prepared to act where others hesitate,” said Nigel Feetham, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry. “We took a deliberate decision to create a licensing framework for prediction markets because we recognise the enormous opportunity they represent, economically, technologically and for the global financial ecosystem.

“This is more than a new regulatory framework; it is a statement of intent. My ambition is to position Gibraltar as a leading jurisdiction for responsible digital innovation and for the development of new markets underpinned by high regulatory standards.”

Regulation 4 provides that activity carried on under the Regulations is not to be treated as betting, gaming or a lottery, while Part 2 confirms that a prediction market authorisation is neither a Part 4 gambling licence nor an authorisation to carry on a regulated financial activity.

This provides legal certainty for operators while establishing prediction market activity as a distinct statutory category with its own authorisation, operational requirements and supervisory framework.

All event contracts are required to be approved and certified by the Gambling Authority and must be “clear, capable of objective settlement, not readily susceptible to manipulation and consistent with the regulatory objectives”.

The Authority has the discretion to restrict or prohibit certain prediction market contracts if it considers them inappropriate or contrary to the public interest. These include any contracts relating to criminal conduct, death, serious injury or terrorism, or the occurrence of war or armed conflict.

Licensed prediction market operators will be required to implement comprehensive market integrity measures, including systems designed to prevent, detect and address market manipulation, insider trading, wash trading and collusive trading. Operators must also establish policies to identify, manage and disclose conflicts of interest while ensuring fair and orderly trading.

In addition, the framework requires operators to provide participants with accurate and transparent information and maintain robust anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF) controls.

The Regulations expressly permit cryptocurrencies, including stablecoins, to be integrated into the sector’s accepted methods of payment, and users will not be prevented from using digital assets to fund accounts, settle transactions or make withdrawals. They also confirm that their use does not alter the legal character of the contract or the operator.

The dedicated rules come after Gibraltar gave approval to ADI Predictstreet to offer its event contracts under a ‘betting intermediary’ licence in early March 2026 and the grant of a second prediction market licence to WagerWire in June 2026.

“Predict Street became FIFA’s first Official Prediction Market Partner for the FIFA World Cup and secured partnership agreements throughout the tournament. Today, it has become one of the most visible new brands associated with the competition,” said Feetham.

“I licensed Predict Street because we believed it was the right thing to do, supporting innovation while ensuring it operated within a robust, well-regulated framework. Predict Street’s success is a reminder that today’s start-ups can become tomorrow’s global brands, and Gibraltar is committed to supporting innovative businesses with the ambition to achieve that success.”

Feetham said the regulatory framework was developed through months of collaboration with industry participants. He expected to issue its first prediction market licence under the new regime shortly. An Approval in Principle has been granted to one operator and another approval is anticipated in the coming weeks.